“We’re all in alignment on one thing, and that’s growth”......but the question is, what kind of growth exactly?

Caroline Whyte, Feasta

Listeners to the Irish National Economic Dialogue on June 15 may have wondered what, if any, common ground could possibly be established during it, given the broad range of perspectives aired. Delegates from industry, unions, agriculture and a variety of civil society organisations were all represented, and virtually all of them had quite specific budgetary and policy asks. The asks didn’t necessarily combine easily, and so the already-thoroughly-exercised word ‘trade-off’ also got trotted out quite a few times. (It must be exhausted!)  

Nonetheless, one possible piece of common ground was mooted in the final plenary, by a participant who commented that “we’re all in alignment on one thing - and that’s growth”. 

“Growth” sounds positive, right? But hold on - maybe we should be asking what kind of growth?

If, when using the word ‘growth’, the speaker was referring to improvements in the health and wellbeing of people, their communities, and nature - enhancements to overall quality of life, in other words - then they were surely right. It’s hard to argue with the idea that quality of life could and should get better over time. 

But given the context, it seems much more likely that the speaker was instead referring to growth in production and consumption levels in Ireland; aka GDP growth (or GNI* growth, to be more precise). That’s a different beast altogether, and it’s a big mistake to assume that we’re all united in a fervent desire to continue attempting - often rather frantically - to fatten it. 

It’s been well known for decades that GDP - and its close cousin GNI* - is a very patchy measure of progress. In fact, its inaccuracy is dangerous. Its failure to adequately account for environmental and social impacts makes it an increasingly risky metric to rely on. 

Evidence indicates that the decoupling of production and consumption from environmental impacts, at the pace, scale and consistency necessary to halt and reverse the environmental crisis, is impossible. Science simply can’t support it. It looks worryingly likely that the blind prioritisation of this (frankly cancerous) type of growth is actually edging us straight over a cliff. 

Meanwhile, analysts such as Sinead O’Sullivan have shown how so-called ‘economic growth’ in Ireland has failed to trickle down to help the very people who actually need access to resources most. A profoundly unequal society with a critical mass of economically insecure members quickly becomes a society that’s prone to stigmatisation and scapegoating of minorities, to chronically inflamed misogyny, and to extreme, undemocratic actions, such as the recent fuel protests.

But back to growth. A central discussion topic at the NED was the Department of Finance’s Future Forty report, which predicts much lower GNI* growth levels in coming decades. It uses the emotive word ‘stagnant’ to describe this low-growth state, and it associates it with a mixture of unavoidable challenges, including demographic change and the impacts of climate disruption. These challenges are certainly real and I don’t mean to suggest that the report should ignore them - quite the contrary.

But what if a less frenetic economy turned out to actually be a healthier one in many ways? It’s worth considering the possibility that a skilful combination of policies - supported by careful and patient negotiations, both domestically and internationally - could bring about a thriving yet GDP-growth-independent economy, even within a context of demographic shift and environmental challenges.

In other words, it’s the so-called ‘stagnation’ which the report emphasises that (I believe) need not be a problem. Indeed, even zero or negative GNI* growth need not be a problem, if we manage to play our cards right. 

Research indicates that achieving this kind of transformation in economic goals will require two serious changes, on a societal level: a big reduction in inequality, and shifts in cultural and social norms. These can certainly seem challenging. But when given a choice between engaging with them and attempting to fiddle around with laws of thermodynamics, it’s clear which option seems more realistic to me.  

Also, it isn’t really all that hard to come up with examples of surprisingly quick shifts in power dynamics and cultural norms over the past few decades, both in Ireland and elsewhere.  Human society is a complex dynamic system, which means that things can sometimes go very wrong very fast - but also that, conversely, progressive ideas can spread surprisingly quickly, if the time and strategy is right. And the fact that substantial majorities of people around the world believe that environmental protection should be prioritised over profit maximisation suggests that at least some aspects of the challenge may be less daunting than feared. 

Ireland currently has a high level of GNI* per capita, and this means that it needs a planned, fair contraction of production and consumption - aka ‘degrowth’. One important nuance to bear in mind is that this shouldn’t be a universal requirement that applies to all countries, or indeed to all communities within wealthy countries (or not at present, anyway). That’s because quite a few places around the world currently don’t have enough access to resources, which means that they should be given the chance to increase their production and consumption as needed. And this is all the more reason for us to shrink ours. 

We’ll be exploring all of these topics in depth at “Go Leor”, the 12 International Conference and Festival on Degrowth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity, which will bring academics, activists, and artists from around the world to Cork City from August 16-20 2027. WEAll Ireland will be the main organisers, with support from our global partners in the Wellbeing Economy Alliance (and Feasta will administer it, as we hold the secretariat for WEAll Ireland). 

If you’re interested in learning more, please sign up for the Go Leor newsletter here, and if you’d like to be kept up to speed on Feasta’s activities in general, please sign up for the Feasta newsletter here. 

Caroline Whyte has been involved in research and communication in the fields of ecological, energy and institutional economics since 2002 and is the editor of the Feasta blog. She also co-hosts a successful podcast series, 'Bridging the Gaps', for Feasta and the European Health Futures Forum with Seán Ó Conláin.